Source des données

J’ai récupéré les données du site wri.org, qui est l’organisme qui collecte et produit les statistiques pour le climat.

Ils ont un outils pas mal foutu du tout, par contre il y a des comparaisons qu’on ne peut pas faire , comme comparer des groupes de pays .

J’ai donc choisi, les gaz à effet de serre, sur plusieurs groupes de pays différents.

Représentativité et géopolitique

Attention: Certains pays sont membres de plusieurs groupes.

Certains groupes ont intégré des pays récemment , c’est bien pratique lorsque l’on souhaite amélioré sa courbe.

Ca permet aussi , d’avoir les pieds dans plusieurs zones d’influences , de profiter de certains avantages , et inversement.

J’ai sélectionné 3 groupes:

Le G20
L’Europe des 27
Le BRICS

Ainsi que leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre:

CO2 dioxyde de carbone
CH4 méthane
N2O protoxyde d’azote

Le match !!

Ici la carte , des principaux décisionnaires , et responsables de la situation.

Cette carte regroupe les membres du G20 (plus les invités), l’Europe des 27 et le BRICS.

 library(maps)
 library(mapdata)
 map('worldHires', c('Brazil','China','Russia','USSR','India','South Africa','france', 'Ireland', 'Italy','Belgium','Spain','Portugal','Grece','Netherland','Europe','Romania','Poland','Slovenia','Germany','Danmark','Finland','Norway','Sueden','Bulgaria','Austria','Slovekia','Croatia','Lettonia','Lithuania','USA','Canada','Russie','Australia','Japan','South Korea','Mexico','Turkey','Saudi','Argentina','Switzerland','Indonesia','UK','Senegal','Chile'))

Le G20

Carte du G20

library(maps)
 library(mapdata)
  map('worldHires', c('Brazil','China','USSR','India','South Africa','france', 'Ireland', 'Italy','Belgium','Spain','Portugal','Netherland','Europe','Romania','Poland','Slovenia','Germany','Danmark','Finland','Sweden','Bulgaria','Austria','Slovekia','Czech Republic','Croatia','Lettonia','Latvia','Greece','Lithuania','USA','Canada','Australia','Japan','South Korea','Mexico','Turkey','Saudi','Argentina','Switzerland','Indonesia','Chile','Senegal','Egypt'))

annee_G20 <- c(1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018)
CH4_G20 <- c(2779.75,2738.51,2681.36,2636.64,2594.14,2578.11,2583.59,2580.39,2555.15,2548.80,2564.98,2584.54,2592.54,2640.62,2665.74,2668.72,2728.24,2775.14,2838.53,2846.62,2908.83,2934.82,2966.27,2994.98,3037.28,3074.29,3081.73,3094.77,3107.81)
CO2_G20 <- c(17247.96,17419.67,17410.78,17575.22,17718.91,18246.58,18671.03,18939.43,19093.49,19153.57,19769.57,19992.27,20224.30,21123.31,22114.67,22915.32,23606.25,24489.38,24551.09,24206.27,25713.67,26484.26,26715.61,27156.53,27147.89,27028.78,26899.03,27278.42,27818.18)
N2O_G20 <- c(211.20,214.73,217.07,220.89,224.91,231.06,238.28,243.09,247.00,247.73,251.35,250.83,252.35,255.22,256.71,257.81,258.97,259.72,261.06,258.99,264.20,263.51,261.60,264.10,263.58,264.21,264.40,265.28,266.15)
gas_G20 <- data.frame(annee_G20,CH4_G20,CO2_G20,N2O_G20)
library(ggplot2)
ggplot(gas_G20, aes(x = annee_G20)) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CO2_G20, col = "CO2")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CH4_G20, col = "CH4")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = N2O_G20, col = "N2O")) +
    labs(title = "Emmissions des gaz à effet de serre du G20",
         subtitle = "CO2, CH4, N2O",
         caption = "Données du https://www.wri.org",
         x = "Années", 
         y = "Equivalent Méga tonnes de C02",
         colour = "Gaz") +
  theme(
        axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 30, hjust = 1),
         plot.title = element_text(color = "#9E0142", size = 12, 
                                   face = "bold", hjust = 0.5),
         plot.subtitle = element_text(color = "#3288BD", hjust = 0.5),
         plot.caption = element_text(color = "#66C2A5", face = "italic")
     )

L’Europe des 27

Carte de l’Europe

Le Royaume Unis ayant quitté l’Europe … Je l’enlève de la carte, mais je garde le nom à 27.

library(maps)
library(mapdata)
map('worldHires', c('france', 'Italy','Belgium','Spain','Portugal','Grece','Netherland','Romania','Poland','Slovenia','Germany','Danmark','Finland','Norway','Sueden','Bulgaria','Austria','Slovekia','Czech Republic','Croatia','Lettonia','Lithuania','Estonia','Hungary','Croatia','Cyprus'))

annee_UE27 <- c(1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018)
CO2_UE27 <- c(3634.04,3599.21,3484.51,3431.72,3416.49,3470.24,3578.34,3518.91,3517.93,3462.50,3481.16,3541.34,3537.83,3635.78,3649.91,3636.18,3656.02,3622.62,3552.13,3293.42,3382.72,3287.57,3221.09,3143.83,2993.36,3054.71,3073.06,3103.65,3058.28)
CH4_UE27 <- c(315.90,308.53,303.24,303.34,297.09,295.85,292.90,285.45,275.73,271.62,266.84,265.46,255.98,252.67,241.44,234.26,227.29,220.10,216.82,210.39,208.85,203.24,201.41,195.64,188.51,187.27,182.13,180.52,178.90)
N2O_UE27 <- c(34.64,34.22,33.75,33.88,34.13,35.04,36.15,36.41,36.71,35.71,35.30,35.15,34.75,35.52,35.49,35.45,35.56,36.00,36.08,34.58,35.18,34.44,34.20,33.91,33.32,34.03,33.96,33.93,33.89)
gaz_UE27 <- data.frame(annee_UE27,CO2_UE27, CH4_UE27, N2O_UE27)
library(ggplot2)
ggplot(gas_G20, aes(x = annee_UE27)) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CO2_UE27, colour = "CO2")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CH4_UE27, col = "CH4")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = N2O_UE27, col = "N2O")) +
    labs(title = "Emmissions des gaz à effet de serre de l'Europe des 27",
         subtitle = "CO2, CH4, N2O",
         caption = "Données du https://www.wri.org",
         x = "Années", 
         y = "Equivalent Méga tonnes de C02",
         colour = "Gaz") +
  theme(
         plot.title = element_text(color = "#9E0142", size = 12, 
                                   face = "bold", hjust = 0.5),
         plot.subtitle = element_text(color = "#3288BD", hjust = 0.5),
         plot.caption = element_text(color = "#66C2A5", face = "italic")
     )

Le BRICS

Carte du groupe BRICS:

Brésil
Fédération de Russie
Inde
Chine
Afrique du Sud

library(maps)
library(mapdata)
map('worldHires', c('Brazil','China','Russia','India','South Africa','USSR'))

annee_brics <- c(1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018)
CO2_brics <- c(5278.51,5404.09,5365.37,5421.67,5363.54,5697.32,5705.51,5722.54,5843.41,5836.07,6102.86,6318.20,6615.78,7241.94,8043.77,8758.45,9453.41,10120.26,10479.21,10915.72,11875.72,12794.39,13234.79,13661.57,13805.72,13706.73,13634.61,13997.06,14429.83)
CH4_brics <- c(1331.83,1286.32,1228.00,1189.47,1152.13,1143.01,1149.40,1160.03,1164.04,1184.79,1210.61,1250.48,1292.14,1354.23,1407.15,1429.59,1499.95,1562.94,1614.88,1652.61,1732.09,1795.96,1853.98,1886.21,1919.91,1956.39,1979.76,1984.20,1988.63)
N2O_brics <- c(79.64,81.39,80.05,80.56,80.51,81.99,85.14,87.52,89.91,92.57,95.29,97.32,99.66,101.97,104.37,107.20,110.85,114.17,117.63,120.81,124.20,125.60,126.76,127.56,128.91,130.16,130.79,131.38,131.96)
gaz_brics <- data.frame(annee_brics, CO2_brics, CH4_brics, N2O_brics)
library(ggplot2)
ggplot(gaz_brics, aes(x = annee_brics)) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CO2_brics, col = "CO2")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CH4_brics, col = "CH4")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = N2O_brics, col = "N2O")) +
    labs(title = "Emmissions des gaz à effet de serre du groupe BRICS",
         subtitle = "Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine, Afrique du Sud",
         caption = "Données du https://www.wri.org",
         x = "Années", 
         y = "Equivalent Méga tonnes de C02",
         colour = "Gaz") +
   theme(
         plot.title = element_text(color = "#9E0142", size = 12, 
                                   face = "bold", hjust = 0.5),
         plot.subtitle = element_text(color = "#3288BD", hjust = 0.5),
         plot.caption = element_text(color = "#66C2A5", face = "italic")
     )

Le résultat

Carte regroupant les pays pollueurs et décisionnaires

Et voici la carte regroupant l’ensemble des pays:

library(maps)
library(mapdata)
map('worldHires', c('Brazil','China','Russia','USSR','India','South Africa','france', 'Ireland', 'Italy','Belgium','Spain','Portugal','Grece','Netherland','Europe','Romania','Poland','Slovenia','Germany','Danmark','Finland','Norway','Sueden','Bulgaria','Austria','Slovekia','Croatia','Lettonia','Lituania','USA','Canada','Russie','Australia','Japan','South Korea','Mexico','Turkey','Saudi','Argentina','Switzerland','Indonesia','UK'))

C’est que ces pays là, polluent plus que tous le reste, et sont décisionnaires.

Les membres du G20 arrivant largement en tête , suivi du BRICS puis l’Europe.

Voilà la problème:

annee_COP26 <- c(1990,1991,1992,1993,1994,1995,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018)
gaz_COP26 <- data.frame(annee_COP26, CO2_brics, CO2_G20, CO2_UE27, CH4_brics, CH4_G20, CH4_UE27, N2O_brics, N2O_G20, N2O_UE27)
library(ggplot2)
ggplot(gaz_COP26, aes(x = annee_COP26)) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CO2_brics, col = "CO2_brics")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CH4_brics, col = "CH4_brics")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = N2O_brics, col = "N2O_brics")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CO2_G20, col = "CO2_G20")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CH4_G20, col = "CH4_G20")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = N2O_G20, col = "N2O_G20")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CO2_UE27, col = "CO2_UE")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = CH4_UE27, col = "CH4_UE")) +
  geom_line(aes( y = N2O_UE27, col = "N2O_UE")) +
  labs(title = "Comparaison des emmissions",
         subtitle = "Entre l'Europe des 27, le G20, et le groupe du BRICS",
         caption = "Données du https://www.wri.org",
         x = "Années", 
         y = "Equivalent Méga tonnes de C02",
         colour = "Gaz") +
   theme(
         plot.title = element_text(color = "#9E0142", size = 12, 
                                   face = "bold", hjust = 0.5),
         plot.subtitle = element_text(color = "#3288BD", hjust = 0.5),
         plot.caption = element_text(color = "#66C2A5", face = "italic")
     )

Ce travail est sous licence Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International.